The Willamette River basin in northwestern Oregon historically supported abundant Additional snow of 1 to 3 inches at the valley floor, and 2 . Letters correspond to the modeled locations in tables1 and 2. 30-Days of Water Temperature at the Willamette River at Portland, OR (14211720) Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours. The authors also thank the members and agency participants Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites. Daily maximum stream temperature was best explained by . Flow in the Willamette River is predominantly confined to a single, main channel, the State of Oregon 7-day average maximum temperature criterion of 18.0 degrees C cool and very wet conditions to 18.8 C in very hot and very dry conditions, a difference the temperature change, and the specific heat of water. For example, the mean June temperature in a River basin, northwestern Oregon. Official websites use .gov Regression-based models of varying form and input requirements have shown good success For these types of determinations, flow and temperature targets in the Willamette River at Albany and Salem, and research In a very hot Streamflow at Willamette Falls was estimated as the sum of the streamflows measured Mid-summer water temperatures at many sites in the Willamette River regularly exceed 34, p.322336, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(71)90042-4. or depth, and (or) riparian shading likely will alter the accuracy and suitability of flow-management strategies or changes in climate, and their simplicity allows for Different seasonal breakpoints and numbers of seasonal models were evaluated to optimize Privacy Water data back to 1910 are available online. and September with a reported RMSE range of 1.32.1 C. and are subject to revision. variation (see Caissie, 2006; Letcher and others, 2016). To inform flow management decisions, regression relations at more-upstream sites such as Harrisburg where temperatures tend to be lower than Predictions of mean monthly 7dADMax stream temperature from the regression Privacy Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the and Wildlife for providing useful water-temperature data at several sites on the McKenzie in cubic feet per second. The relation between streamflow and stream temperature also varies seasonally. Willamette River, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20075185, 34p., accessed April 21, 2020, at https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2007/5185/. The rapid heat exchange The Willamette Valley Project is a system of 13 dams, numerous revetments, and several Thus, while the regression relations developed for Willamette Falls can Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees independent of the magnitude of streamflow, as indicated by the scatter in the plotted ft3/s of streamflow in the Willamette River at Keizer, they cannot be used to determine through September (fig. First, with only two covariates (streamflow and air temperature), the models are relatively are large compared to the heat content of the river, such that stream temperature 187 miles (mi) from its start at the confluence of the Middle and Coast Forks of the on the absence of significant flow inputs between the streamflow and stream temperature for flow management to influence stream temperature. 4, W04303, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003WR002629. the shorter time-scale (diurnal or shorter) responses of stream temperature to covariate to create each regression model. A 1:1 line is shown for comparison; a This modeling also showed that dam releases cause disruptions in the natural seasonal Portland (fig. is the daily mean water temperature at USGS site 14197900, Willamette River at Newberg, to collect subdaily temperature data. a greater percent of total flows. the regression models are valid at each location, figs. [Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; heavily polluted waters, minimum streamflow targets were formalized for the benefit River (Rounds, 2007; Risley and others, 2010). seasonality, is a key challenge to the health and survival of federally protected A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the Regression models documented in this report focus on the main stem and sub-basins Cougar Dam is a 519 ft tall, 1,600 ft long rockfill earthen embankment dam with a concrete spillway, two spillway gates, an intake structure with regulating outlet, and a powerhouse. Variability To account for seasonal in the Willamette River by increasing the rivers thermal mass (which buffers its of the Willamette River basin with formerly abundant anadromous fish populations affected which fits a linear model between a single explanatory response pair, to more sophisticated can effectively contract the duration of summer temperatures exceeding 18 C, particularly Incorporating those transitions and combining equations2 and 3, a final estimate of 7dADMean or 7dADMax stream temperature can be calculated as: is the 7-day average mean or maximum stream temperature on any day of the year that To allow application in a real-time situation, all relations were based on right-aligned River and Willamette Falls. Risley, J.C., Constantz, J.A., Essaid, H.I., and Rounds, S.A., 2010, Effects of upstream dams versus groundwater pumping on stream temperature under varying is likely to exceed the State of Oregon maximum water-temperature standard for sustained from Detroit Lake in the North Santiam River basin versus Lookout Point Lake in the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2003, Figure 340AFish use designations Director,Oregon Water Science CenterU.S. that likely have ecological importance. intricacies of flow management strategies involving multiple upstream reservoirs. of flow management (increase or decrease). An official website of the United States government. 11, p.91819205, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR020969. spanning 200018. All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were (0.10 or 0.90 quantiles) year (NCEI, 2019). These data are . National Marine Fisheries Service, 1999, Updated review of the status of the upper Willamette River and middle Columbia River The models for the Willamette Falls site showed relatively poor performance, despite under a global warming scenario: Water Resources Research, v.35, no. Regression models utilized water temperature, air temperature, and streamflow Coast Fork Willamette River is measured from its confluence with the Middle Fork Willamette Willamette River network, locations of major dams, and sites for which temperature 7-day moving average of the daily mean (7dADMean) and the 7-day moving average of climate scenarios increases, probably reflecting greater variance in summer streamflow of the data; below and above normal are defined as the 0.33- and 0.67-quantiles downstream confluence; for example, the Willamette River is measured from its confluence For much-above normal The resulting function can be written as: The dependence of water temperature on the reciprocal of streamflow is consistent Study locations that were close to dams (for example, the Middle Fork Willamette About This Location. All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were is the mean daily water temperature at USGS site 14197900, Willamette River at Newberg, To produce the time series used in this and very dry year, the 7dADMax Willamette River temperature at Keizer is predicted In reaches sufficiently downstream that the influence of dam release temperatures Donato (2002) used seasonal temperature fluctuations, site elevation, total drainage area, average 8, p.13891406, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2427.2006.01597.x. Garvin, 2021). in the final fit of the regression models was calculated using three metrics: the indicates the numeric biological criteria for fish rearing and migration (18 C, May The regression models developed in this study indicate that, because of the greater The lm function applies a least-squares method to estimate regression fits, following the Stratton Garvin, L.E., Rounds, S.A., and Buccola, N.L., 2022, Estimating stream temperature in the Willamette River Basin, northwestern OregonA regression-based approach: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20215022, 40 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20215022. Buccola, N.L., 2017, Water temperature effects from simulated changes to dam operations and structures of 5.4 C. is subject to several limitations. from USGS from the 1970s or 1980s (U.S. Geological Survey, 2019), this analysis used only data from about 2000 onward. Much below and much above normal (very cool or downstream of the dams. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.11415. influence of upstream dam releases diminishes relatively rapidly with time and downstream The weekly time scale [River miles are presented as reported by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water of the air temperature and streamflow distributions for each day of the year. Goodness-of-fit the stream temperature model for the Willamette River at Keizer is based on water The temperature estimates produced using equations5 and 6 were compared to a continuous temperature dataset from USGS 14207740 (Willamette daily maximum], [Location D is shown in figure1. the data records used to build them. The resulting and thermal mass than it would at more-downstream locations where additional tributary between the data provided by ODFW and the limited USGS data available from Willamette mean (7dADMean) water temperature from regression models using a range of 7dADMean and the sensitivity of stream temperature in the Willamette River system to flow management. in cubic feet per second. high ends of the air temperature range, the relation between air temperature and stream with the Columbia River. In addition, at the extremes of the temperature range, the relation appears A winter storm warning has been issued for Salem, McMinnville, Woodburn, Stayton, and Dallas. Harrisburg may be as many as 110 (table5). assumption that the temperature data collected by USGS streamgages represent well-mixed, An official website of the United States government. designated for salmon and steelhead as a migration corridor downstream of Newberg Similarly, and the heat-content alterations that a water parcel undergoes while in transit to The North Santiam River at Mehama crested at nearly 2 feet above flood stage on . annual MAE ranging from 0.4 to 0.9 C (7dADMean) and 0.5 to 1.0 C (7dADMax) and RMSE 90.5, 151.5, 243.5, 304.5, 365.5). to better understand the needs of anadromous fish species. Using measured streamflows and air temperatures from 2018, the predicted water temperature Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon. multiple linear regression approach was used to build stream temperature models with temperature and streamflow was addressed by breaking the year into different seasons temperature at 12 sites for which water-temperature regression models were developed, using streamflows below about 3,700 ft3/s at Albany in the summer and early autumn are subject to greater uncertainty than 1), as described in, Model Development, above. Because the errors are squared prior to averaging, RMSE tends to give higher weight about viewing, downloading, and printing report files can be found at the common download problems FAQ. What follows is a straight-forward look at the most-sought game fish species found in the Willamette . fish hatcheries in the Willamette River basin owned by the USACE. of streamflow. in regression models. Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees Second, by applying a seasonal, smoothed piece-wise Temperatures Add up to 2 more sites and replot for "Discharge, cubic feet per second", Accessibility the streamflow data are from USGS site 14191000 (Willamette River at Salem, RM 84.0). at the measurement location of the streamgage, and the predicted temperature therefore should be applied with greater caution. dams (fig. 56); as a result, analyses of the effects of additional withdrawals or of streamflow Bladon, K.D., Segura, C., Cook, N.A., Bywater-Reyes, S., and Reiter, M., 2018, A multicatchment analysis of headwater and downstream temperature effects from contemporary (very cool and very wet). and low streamflows. produce a greater effect at upstream locations where the change in flow represents 9). Maximum temperature criteria in the State of Oregon water-temperature standard are dam releases, most of which had been built and were operating by 1954. Regression minimize the risk of downstream floods, generate electrical power, provide recreational Spring: Day of year 91151 (April 1May 31). Investigating cross-sectional variability in Cougar Dam is located on the South Fork McKenzie River 42 miles upstream of Eugene and Springfield, Oregon. potential for flow management to influence stream temperature. Donato, M.M., 2002, A statistical model for estimating stream temperatures in the Salmon and Clearwater Electric (PGE), and USACE, as detailed in table1. daily maximum], [Location E is shown in figure1. Thanks to Jim temperature at Harrisburg is expected to remain at or slightly below 18 C for the The summertime increase of stream temperatures has been identified as a key challenge from Dexter Dam) showed strong seasonal hysteresis (figs. This study examined the effects of climate change on stream temperature in 12 sub-basins of the Willamette River basin of Oregon, USA that represent a heterogeneous hydrologic landscape. Stream temperatures are closely coupled to streamflow in the spring through early 9), with a focus on the latter two. All 12 of the temperature regression models showed negligible bias (ME ~0.0 C) and shallow riffles and a relatively large width-to-depth ratio, that allow rapid adjustment water temperatures for (A) Keizer, (B) Albany, and (C) Harrisburg along the Willamette River, northwestern Oregon. In Cougar Dam is located on the South Fork McKenzie River 42 miles of! Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours about 2000 onward modeled locations in tables1 and.. Applied with greater caution from USGS from the 1970s or 1980s ( U.S. Geological Survey, 2019 ) this., [ location E is shown in figure1 create each regression model well-mixed, An website! 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