lake powell water level forecast 2022

Snow levels will fall to the lowest locations Wednesday night into Thursday morning, before the storm exits eastern Arizona Thursday afternoon. The period 2000-2022 is the lowest 23-year period since the closure of Glen Canyon Dam in 1963, with an average unregulated inflow of 8.29 maf, or 93 percent of the 30-year average (1991-2020). There is approximately an 80 percent probability that a future elevation will fall inside the range of the minimum and maximum inflow scenarios. These projections are critical for planning for an increasingly dry future in the Colorado River Basin, but a new paper from Utah State University says the model may still underestimate the risk. The probable minimum and probable maximum model runs are conducted simultaneously in January, April, August, and October, or when necessary to incorporate changing conditions. As the forecast season progresses, In January, following the wet December Moser noted, the NOAA forecast called for 98% of the 30-year average to reach Powell. A powerful winter storm will enter AZ early Tuesday night with rain and snow showers increasing across the region after midnight. Detailed Map of Powell The probable maximum inflow scenario reflects a wet hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 10 percent of the time. To view the current inflow forecast relative to past inflows, click on Lake Powell Inflow Forecast. That projection is about 12 feet higher than the 2023 end-of-year mark in the bureau's forecast from December. google_color_link = "0000FF"; The Colorado River cuts through dry land that was once covered by Lake Powell on September 7, 2022, near Hite, Utah. Global warming is expected to make droughts more severe in the future. There are continued discussions when and how that same amount of water (0.523 maf) will be . The forecast is changing daily and there are still a lot of variables, said Lisa Meiman, a spokeswoman for WAPA. The declines were first apparent in the side canyons feeding the reservoir which thinned and then shortened. Although developing snowpack in the area is "fairly good" and might stave off dead pool in Lake Powell for another year or so, according to Lund, the solution lies with people conserving water. (2019-2021) AND my own personal prediction of 2022 based on p. Based on current inflow forecasts, the current projected end of water year 2023 total Colorado Basin reservoir storage is approximately 20.93 maf (36 percent of total system capacity). As of Wednesday, the water level was 3,524.22 feet. The most probable inflow scenario reflects a median hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 50 percent of the time. The August 2022 24-Month Study modeled 2023 and 2024 operations at Lakes Powell and Mead as if the 0.480 maf had been delivered to Lake Mead for operating tier/condition purposes both for the U.S. Lower Basin and for Mexico. From there, a swing to the northeast delivers boats into Lake Powell's main artery. Telling stories that matter in a dynamic, evolving state. Gas Prices on Lake Were an initiative of theCenter for Environmental Journalismat the University of Colorado Boulder. hb```)," This is the big warning bell.. Click for Details, Current Snowpack Conditions for Upper Colorado Basin. "We might get lucky with the weather, but the idea of the system recovering is really hard unless you reduce water use in that basin," Lund told Newsweek. At the beginning of the series in 1999, water levels in Lake Powell were relatively high, and the water was a clear, dark blue. U.S. Arizona Drought Climate Change Water Conservation. google_ad_client = "pub-0146338466817273"; Both Moser and Lukas said that dry soil moisture conditions across the Colorado River Basin, which can sponge off valuable runoff before the water makes it into rivers and streams, wont be quite as bad as last year but will still be a negative factor. Lake Mead's water levels . She can be reached at 720-398-6474, via email atjerd@wateredco.orgor @jerd_smith. On April 8, Reclamation announced it would likely keep more water in Lake Powell, reducing releases from the planned 7.5 million acre-feet to 7 million acre-feet, a move that could trigger emergency water cutbacks in Arizona, California and Nevada. Powell was last within 2" of this elevation on Feb 11, 2023 There are currently 1,757,155,460,140 gallons of water in Lake Powell! The drop in the power forecast comes as Upper Colorado River Basin states of Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming prepare to finalize a new drought operations plan for the giant river system. | March 17, 2022, 6:57 a.m. As predicted, southern Utah's Lake Powell has fallen below a critical level that soon could threaten its ability . (Due to the angle of sunlight, this image may cause an optical illusion known as relief inversion.). Precipitation declines combined with booming urban populations will present a significant challenge to Western water managers in the near future. Electricity produced at Lake Powells Glen Canyon Dam, which serves some 50 Colorado utilities, and dozens of others in the Colorado River Basin, has been cut in half by the 20-year drought, with power levels over the next two years projected to be 47% lower than normal, according to the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for elevations above 4000.Heavy accumulations of 10-20 are forecast above 6000, 3-8 to 4500 and several inches to valley floors. 2018 brought some relief after a wet winter. (For comparison, the 1991-2020 total water year average is 9.60 maf.) Among the dams on the Colorado is Arizonas Glen Canyon Dam, which creates Lake Powell. The sediment-filled Colorado River appeared green-brown. Water levels in Lake Powell dropped to a new record low on Tuesday. In the early years of this image series, water levels began to drop. 0 (Hugh Carey, The Colorado Sun), How Denver is spending the $41M from the Broncos sale, (720) 263-2338 Call, text, Signal or WhatsApp, Proudly powered by Newspack by Automattic. The 30-year average was updated in October 2022 from 1981 through 2010 to 1991 through 2020. Few expected to ever see this drop in hydropower production, let alone consider what to do if Glen Canyon were to cease electricity production entirely. The water level in Lake Powell was at a record low when rain and snow began to fall across the Colorado River Basin in October, soaking dry soils ahead of the winter season. Along its route, the river passes through an elaborate water-management system designed to tame the yearly floods from spring snowmelt and to provide a reliable supply of water for residents as far away as California. The lake is set to reach. Utahs Flaming Gorge, Colorados Blue Mesa and New Mexicos Navajo. endstream endobj startxref The final NOAA forecast for the season predicts the amount of water to reach Lake Powell this year to be about 60% of average. Printable Version Gas Prices on Lake Detailed Map of Powell 15 Day Weather Forecast Last week, the Bureau of Reclamation announced extraordinary action to keep the water level at Powell from dropping too low, which could threaten hydropower production at Powells Glen Canyon Dam. Lake Powell is so low that it is nearing a dead pool, in which water levels aren't high enough to deliver water downstream. Lake Powell